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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The employment market is gradually weakening, and the market is waiting for non-agricultural employment data." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Financial markets remained relatively calm early on Friday as investors turned to wait and see ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. May job report, which will include non-farm employment, unemployment rate and wage inflation data. Earlier in the day, the European Economic Calendar will revise the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and employment changes data, as well as retail sales data for April.
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced Thursday that, as expected, it cut key interest rates by 25 basis points after its June policy meeting. In a post-conference press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that they are confident that inflation will stabilize at the target level and pointed out that they are approaching the end of the current monetary policy cycle. The euro/dollar gained traction in an immediate response to Lagarde's remarks and reached its highest level since late April around 1.1500. Although the pair corrected lower later in the U.S. session, it closed in the upside for the second consecutive day later in the U.S. session, as President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk fell into heated debate, the market began to avoid risks. Trump said the easiest way to save money on the budget is to terminate Musk's government subsidies and contracts. In response, Musk said SpaceX will immediately retire its Dragon spacecraft used to transport crews to and from the space station. When a user asked him if he thought Trump should be impeached, Musk replied: "Yes. After this development, Tesla shares fell nearly 15%, and the tech-based Nasdaq hejiba.cnposite Index closed down 0.8% on the day. Earlier Friday, the day was, U.S. stock index futures rose slightly on the same day, and the US dollar index stabilized below slightly below 99.00. The number of non-farm employment in the United States is expected to increase by 130,000. domain.
The US dollar (USD) faces selling pressure again after Thursday's disappointing unemployment benefits figures, which showed that the number of first-time unemployment benefits applications rose from 239,000 to 247,000. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump spoke on phone with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss news about trade that helped risk sentiment improve and limit the dollar's losses.
Euro/USD traded in a narrow channel below 1.1450 in early Friday trading.
The USD/Canadian fell to a new 2025 low below 1.3650 on Thursday, and then closed flat. In early European trading on Friday, the pair stabilized above 1.3670. Statistics Canada will release employment data for May later that day.
The GBP/USD lost its traction after hitting its highest level since February 2022 above 1.3600 on Thursday. As of press time, the pair was traded in the negative area around 1.3550.
The US dollar/yen continued to rise, trading around 144.00 after a slight increase on Thursday.
Gold prices remain positively biased in the first half of the European session, although bulls seem reluctant to make radical bets and choose to wait for the release of the US non-farm employment (NFP) report.
Euro: The euro/dollar rebound from 1.1064 is underway, and intraday bias remains moderate upward. At least on the first attempt, a strong resistance level of 1.1572 can be seen to limit upside space. On the downside, on the downside, breaking through the 1.1356 support level will indicate that the correction mode of 1.1572 has begun the third round and aiming at the 1.1209 support level. Nevertheless, a decisive breakthrough of 1.1572 will confirm a larger uptrend recovery.
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