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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Weak employment and service industry data hit the Fed's outlook, and the US dollar index declined." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
XM Forex APP News--The US dollar index (DXY) fell during the US session on Wednesday (June 4). Although the index is still within Tuesday's range, the technical outlook has become fragile and has a clear bearish bias. ADP data is lower than expected, triggering discussions on the Fed's interest rate cut: How low can yields fall? The ADP private sector wage data shocked the market in May, with only 37,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 110,000, the worst performance in more than two years. The April data was also revised to 60,000. This obvious gap, coupled with the May ISM service industry index dropping below 50 (49.9), marks the first contraction in the industry in nearly a year. The bond market responded quickly: the yield on the two-year Treasury bond fell to 3.889%, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell by more than 8 basis points to 4.377%, reflecting investors' expectations that the Fed may adopt a loose policy. Trump has stepped up demands for interest rate cuts Trump uses weak employment data to increase pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and once again calls for an immediate rate cut. As trade frictions become the focus again, Trump's tone is tougher. On Wednesday, the U.S. doubled tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50%, and on the same day it also asked major trading partners to make new trade proposals. The dollar fell across the board. The latest decline in the U.S. dollar index fell 0.54% to 98.7285, testing support levels around 97.923 in late April. The dollar fell 0.87% against the yen to 142.720 and fell 0.79% against the Swiss franc. ECB makes interest rate decisions on ThursdayBefore the settlement, the euro rose to 1.1428 and the pound rose 0.36% to 1.3563. The Canadian dollar also strengthened after the Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged at 2.75% on the grounds that there was uncertainty in U.S. trade policy. Market forecast: The US dollar index is still bearish below 99.392 (Daily chart of the US dollar index: Yihuitong) The US dollar index is still facing bearish pressure. A rise above 99.392 may trigger short covers and move closer to the resistance level of 99.949, but traders are closely watching the downward breakthrough of 98.723. If it breaks through this level, it will open the door to 97.921-97.685. Given that fundamentals are bearish and data trends are weak, it is necessary for the Fed policy to turn or have major positive surprises to change market sentiment. At present, on Friday
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